Israeli Intelligence… and the Chance of a Strike

The closest thing to a public source on current Israeli intelligence is the Intelligence & Terrorism Information Center.  If you want the absolute latest news and are willing to sacrifice certainty for it, DEBKAfile is the next best thing.  These are the go-to sources regarding whether an Israeli strike on Iran is imminent.

If you want commentators who know the Israeli perspective and can provide deep and meaningful analysis, Jeffrey Goldberg is one of them.  He just published a piece in the Atlantic that paints a dire picture of Israel’s strategic options.

Goldberg says:

What is more likely, then, is that one day next spring, the Israeli national-security adviser, Uzi Arad, and the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, will simultaneously telephone their counterparts at the White House and the Pentagon, to inform them that their prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has just ordered roughly one hundred F-15Es, F-16Is, F-16Cs, and other aircraft of the Israeli air force to fly east toward Iran—possibly by crossing Saudi Arabia, possibly by threading the border between Syria and Turkey, and possibly by traveling directly through Iraq’s airspace, though it is crowded with American aircraft.

Saudi Arabia already seems to be on board for an Iran strike, and many Persian Gulf states appear to be supportive.  If Israel and Saudi Arabia are on the same side, the US will be in no diplomatic position to intervene.

But before you presume that an Israeli attack is a forgone conclusion, it is worthwhile to read Barry Rubin at the Gloria Center of IDC Herzliya, where he opens with the flat statement, “An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear installations for the purpose of trying to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons at all would be a mistake.”

Israel is not a hasty decision maker, and its strategically optimal option is often unclear.  That is why understanding the ideas of both Goldberg and Rubin (ironically, Rubin is usually considered to the right of Goldberg) is important to understanding how, why, and when Israel might attack Iran.

Read Jeffrey Goldberg’s ‘The Point of No Return.“

Read Barry Rubin’s “Why Israel Shouldn’t Attack Iranian Nuclear Installations–Unless It Has to Do So.”

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